Geopolitical developments between India and Pakistan, quarterly earnings and macro data will be the key drivers of stock markets in the holiday-shortened week, say analysts.
With factory production, activities across the private sector saw the biggest drop in over three years
New business orders fall at faster pace, with index at 47.6 in March from 49.5 in February.
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A day after his appointment as the 26th governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), outgoing Revenue Secretary Sanjay Malhotra on Tuesday said one must understand the economic landscape and do what was best for the economy. "Let me first go, join, understand the turf ... Here it is a different role," Malhotra said, speaking to reporters in front of North Block.
The last time these two indexes recorded a negative performance on a calendar year basis was in CY19.
Despite fears of the Omicron variant, business activity touched an all-time high since the onset of the pandemic for the week ended December 12, a Japanese brokerage said on Monday. The Nomura India Business Resumption Index (NIBRI), which compares the activity for a particular week as against the one before the onset of the pandemic, rose to 115.8 from the 112.9 for the previous week. "Despite Omicron risks, neither policy restrictions nor public fear factor appear to have had any impact on mobility so far, which is supporting a further normalisation in services," it said in a statement.
Manufacturing production growth eased in May, which combined with the slowdown in services resulted in a weaker increase in private sector output, the survey said.
Equity benchmark indices ended flat on Wednesday with Sensex sliding 33 points and Nifty gaining 9 points after an unabated record-breaking rally in the last few trading sessions. Weak global market trends and fall in HDFC twins also spoiled markets party. The 30-share BSE Sensex dipped 33.01 points or 0.05 per cent to settle at 65,446.04.
Top gainers in the Sensex pack included IndusInd Bank, ITC, L&T, M&M, PowerGrid, Asian Paints and SBI, ending up to 3.79 per cent higher.
Hiring activity witnessed a 6 per cent year-on-year growth in March this year, supported by a rebound in economic activities and led by sectors such as banking and telecom, according to a report. However, there was a marginal dip of 2.4 per cent in hiring activity as compared to February, owing to the appraisal season, according to the Monster Employment Index (MEI). "Two years into the pandemic, it is heartening to see that the Indian economy has overcome setbacks and challenges with hiring momentum exceeding pre-COVID levels by 6 per cent this year compared to 2020," Monster.com, a Quess company, CEO Sekhar Garisa noted.
The HSBC/Markit purchasing managers index for the services industry inched up to 47.1 in October from 44.6 in September, the fourth successive monthly contraction of service sector output across India.
Even as concerns grow over the residential real estate market reaching its peak, the outlook for office real estate remains strong, with listed real estate investment trusts (Reits) standing to benefit from sustained demand in the segment.
Manufacturing activities in India advanced further and touched a 31-month high in May supported by stronger increase in new orders and favourable market conditions, which in turn generated more employment opportunities, a monthly survey said on Thursday. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose from 57.2 in April to 58.7 in May, indicating the strongest improvement in the health of the sector since October 2020. The May PMI data pointed to an improvement in overall operating conditions for the 23rd straight month.
The 50-issue NSE Nifty too cracked below the 10,400-mark and hit a low of 10,323.90 before finishing 99.50 points, or 0.95 per cent down at 10,358.85.
Days before Diwali, the monthly economic review by the finance ministry has highlighted moderation in urban demand, softening consumer sentiments and limited footfall as areas that need to be watched. In its review, released on Monday, the ministry also noted the early signs of artificial intelligence displacing workers, as described in anecdotal reports. The commentary from several large consumer goods companies, including Nestl India, Hindustan Unilever, and ITC, in their recent quarterly earnings, has been around a sluggish urban demand. Rural consumption, however, has mostly seen a revival, the companies pointed out.
On the employment front, services employment was unchanged in April.
The improvement in the performance of actively managed mutual fund (MF) schemes is acting as a key tailwind for the nearly Rs 50 trillion industry, Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE) said in a report. The report adds that the two largest listed asset management companies (AMCs) - HDFC and Nippon India - are likely to be the biggest beneficiaries. "The industry has a solid track record of delivering alpha on 10-year returns (70-80 per cent of assets under management (AUM) beat the benchmark), with shorter duration performance also on an upswing.
The HSBC Emerging Markets Index, a monthly indicator derived from the PMI surveys, inched up to 50.4 in April, from 50.3 in March, signalling only a marginal increase in output across global emerging markets in April.
Manufacturing activities in India accelerated further and touched a four-month high in April, boosted by robust new business growth, mild price pressures, better international sales, and improving supply-chain conditions, a monthly survey said on Monday. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased from 56.4 in March to 57.2 in April, indicating the fastest improvement in the health of the sector so far this year. The March PMI data pointed to an improvement in overall operating conditions for the 22nd straight month.
India's services industry expanded at its fastest pace in eight months in October as new business rose with discounting probably stoking demand, a survey showed on Wednesday.
Equity benchmarks started the first day of trade of the New Year on a positive note and ended with smart gains, propelled by buying in index majors Reliance Industries and ICICI Bank amid a firm trend in European markets. The 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 327.05 points or 0.54 per cent to settle at 61,167.79 on Monday. During the day, it jumped 382.05 points or 0.62 per cent to 61,222.79.
Meanwhile, outlook for global emerging markets remained relatively weak in September.
While manufacturing firms cut jobs for the first time in 20 months to sharply reduce costs, services providers continued their hiring spree.
Currency scarcity weighed on manufacturing performance where growth of new work flows slowed
Private sector output in India expanded for the first time in 8 months in February as slump in the services sector moderated and manufacturing grew at a stronger pace, an HSBC survey said.
The index has posted below the 50 mark, which marks contraction, for the third consecutive month.
The HSBC/Markit Purchasing Managers Index for the services industry fell to 46.7 in December from 47.2 in November, registering the sixth consecutive monthly drop in output levels, the longest period of continuous reduction since the 2008/2009 global financial crisis.
While Jio MF will undoubtedly grow in size, it will have to cross multiple hurdles even to emerge as the market leader, observes Debashis Basu.
Hiring activity in the country, which was hit by the second COVID wave, bounced back with a 15 per cent growth in June compared to May, according to a report. The activity was led by the IT-software/software services sector. The latest Naukri JobSpeak report on Thursday said that India's hiring trends grew 15 per cent in June with 2,359 job postings from 2,047 in May.
It was the second straight week of gains for the benchmarks.
In 2024, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) implemented significant reforms, focusing on cooling down the derivatives segment, enhancing transparency and accountability in small and midsised enterprise (SME) listings, and deepening the fund management ecosystem.
Business activity has fallen by a fourth of the pre-COVID levels due to lockdowns imposed by states to contain the spread of the second wave of COVID-19, Japanese brokerage Nomura said on Tuesday. However, it said the falling activity levels will have a muted economic impact and maintained its growth estimates for the year, saying the lockdowns present "downside risks". As of April 25, the Nomura India Business Resumption Index (NIBRI) registered its steepest weekly fall in over a year of 8.5 percentage points to 75.9, which is 24 percentage points below pre-pandemic normal, the brokerage said in a statement.
The broader NSE Nifty rose nearly 124 points to settle just below the psychological 11,000 level.
Global trends, macroeconomic data announcements and the start of the earnings season would be the major drivers for the equity markets in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Equity markets will remain closed on Thursday for Eid-Ul-Fitr. Trading activity of foreign investors, rupee-dollar trends and crude oil prices would also guide trends in markets.
The Nikkei India Services PMI posted above the critical 50.0 level, which separates growth from contraction, for the fourth month running in May.
S&P Global Ratings on Tuesday kept India's economic growth forecast in the fiscal year to March 2022 unchanged at 9.5 per cent but raised its predictions for the subsequent year on broadening out of the recovery. The Indian economy had shrunk by 7.3 per cent in 2020-21 fiscal (April 2020 to March 2021) as pandemic induced restrictions battered business activity. The gradual lifting of the restrictions has helped the economy to rebound from pandemic lows.
The HSBC Services Purchasing Managers' Index , compiled by Markit, fell to 50.6 in August from 52.2 in July.
The Nikkei India Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which tracks services sector firms on a monthly basis, stood at 48.7 in January, as against 46.8 in December 2016.
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